A flexible EVM Prediction Market.
What is OrbetV2?
OrbetV2 is a work-in-progress Prediction Market built on ethereum. It will allow ethereum users to create a Prediction against anything accessible within ethereum. Users can deposit and withdraw tokens into pre-made outcomes of a Prediction, determined by the Prediction’s creator. As users deposit more into a certain outcome, the cost of depositing into that outcome rises. As users withdraw more from a certain outcome, the cost of depositing into that outcome will fall. When a Prediction ends, rewards are primarily distributed to those who correctly predicted the outcome. A small portion of rewards are distributed to the user who created the bet, the user who ended the bet, liquidity holders of the Currency Token used in the OrbetV2 system, the founders/developers of OrbetV2, and optionally a small portion of rewards can be burnt. This is done to encourage the creation of Predictions and to grow and sustain the OrbetV2 system. By use of Oracles bringing in outside data into ethereum, OrbetV2 effectively becomes a Prediction Market where predictions can be made against anything and everything.
Why is this important?
- OrbetV2 will be a fully decentralized Prediction Market. The current centralization of Prediction Markets has some serious drawbacks. The cost of maintaining a centralized Prediction Market (and therefore the cost to users to use the Prediction Market) is very high, due to things like maintenance/property costs, data storage costs, network costs, employee costs, etc. Decentralization greatly reduces these costs, therefore those who participate and win in OrbetV2 will enjoy a much higher percent of the money they earn from correct predictions.
- OrbetV2 allows anybody to be a Prediction creator. This is where OrbetV2 really shines, as most, if not all, betting services and prediction services, inside and outside of ethereum, limit the creation of Predictions to a centralized authority. Predictions are usually limited to a few topics, like sports or politics. Allowing anybody to create a Prediction and earn rewards from all of those who participate is a huge incentive for Predictions to be made and vastly expands the amount of topics that can Predictions can be made about, especially when combined with how OrbetV2 Predictions are formed.
- Anything and Everything can be Predicted against. OrbetV2 Predictions can contain (current limitation, can be changed in the future) tens of thousands of different criteria along with arbitrary logic and some ability to perform math within the Prediction itself. This allows for an extremely broad and comprehensive variety of things to be Predicted against. Two examples of this: A Prediction can be made that predicts a new token’s developers/founders will perform a “rugpull”, even if there are multiple developer/founder addresses. The Prediction can be made to predict “Either team member 1 sells X amount of tokens, team member 2 sells Y amount of tokens, or team member 3 sells Z amount of tokens by a specified date”. A Prediction can also include math, allowing Predictions such as “The USDC value per token T will be greater than or equal a certain amount by a specified date”. That last example is exciting because it effectively allows the creation of derivative markets similar to stock options. Any publicly-accessible or external function of any contract in ethereum can be read and the return data can be compared to any arbitrary value to form a Criteria, and a Prediction can contain up to tens of thousands of Criteria.
- Current Prediction Markets can see volumes of up to hundreds of million of dollars for a single prediction. The current market size of all Prediction Markets is likely in the range of billions of dollars. Ethereum Prediction Markets are very limited, and the current (as of 2021/02/20) market capitalization of OrbetV2 is only about one hundred thousand dollars. There is a massive opportunity to decentralize Prediction services and to greatly expand this market to the benefit of those who use or have ethereum or participate in Prediction Markets.
How can I invest/contribute/get in on this while it’s early, or learn more about OrbetV2?
The Currency Token of OrbetV2 is currently slated to be ORBIv2, purchasable on Uniswap. Other contributions/investments can be arranged and all questions can be answered by contacting the Founder/Developer, CryptoOrbicular, best reachable through the OfficialOrbicular Telegram channel.