Hedging against Dumps & Rugpulls with Orbet


OrbetV2 will allow much more than one “less-than” condition restricted to token balances. OrbetV2 will allow for bets to contain many (current limitation 256) different criteria for what satisfies the bet, as well as arbitrary logic and more flexible criteria. For example a bet may have its criteria as : ‘“Condition A must return a number less than 100 and Condition B must return “Hello World”, or Condition C must be that the Uniswap price of a token is at or greater than 1 USDC”’, all the way up to 256 different conditions with whatever logic the bet creator wants.

More at the Official Telegram channel, t.me/OfficialOrbicular

Orbet is a smart contract on the Ethereum Mainnet that allows anyone to make a bet that any Ethereum Wallet will fall under any arbitrary amount of any ERC20-compatible token by any chosen date and time.
Click here to view the contract details on etherscan.

What goes into making a bet?

A bet is made up of four parts: the Observed Wallet, the Observed Token, the Threshold, and the Expiry Date.

Let’s break down an example bet: “I want to make a bet that a particular LINK dev wallet will dump 1 million LINK in the next 7 days”.

In this example the Observed Wallet will be that particular LINK dev wallet’s address. The Observed Token will be LINK. The Threshold will be the amount of Observed Tokens the Observed wallet’s balance needs to fall below in order for the bet condition to be satisfied. In this case, the threshold would be whatever the LINK dev wallet’s LINK balance is minus one million (plus a small amount since the balance needs to fall under the threshold number). The Expiry Date would be the date and time 7 days from now.

Using the Orbet interface at orbicular.io/orbet, you could do this by selecting the Create Bet button and filling out the details as in the below image.

Once the Create Bet transaction has succeeded, you will be given a Bet ID. Any Bet can be viewed at its specific bet page at orbicular.io/orbet/bet?id=[NUMBER]. A search feature and recent/top bets feature will soon be added to the main Orbet page.

Bets positions are made and paid out in ORBIv2, which is purchasable via Uniswap. Click here to go to Uniswap’s ETH-ORBIv2 swap page.

On the bet page, anyone can take a position with that bet. The positions are currently named Under and Not Under, indicating whether that position believes the Observed Wallet will fall under the Threshold of Observed Tokens by the Expiry date. The position “Under” indicates that one is betting that the Observed Wallet will fall under the Threshold, while the position Not Under indicates that one is betting that the wallet will not fall under the Threshold by the Expiry Date.

Once a bet’s end conditions have been reached (either the Expiry Date is reached or the Observed Wallet falls under the Threshold of Observed Tokens), anyone can end the bet using the End Bet button on the bet page. Ending a bet awards a small percent of tokens to the person who created the bet, the person who ended the bet, and a very small percent to the dev wallet. This also enables anyone who entered a winning bet position to use the Claim Reward button on the bet page (appears only after a bet is ended) to claim a reward of 95% of the bet winnings proportional to however much was bet by that particular person.

How does all of this help me hedge against dumps & rugpulls?

You could hedge against a future dump by taking a small portion of the value you would put into a token into an Orbet bet that either a dev wallet or whale holding that token will fall below a certain threshold. This way, if a dev wallet market dumps tokens or a whale offloads a large percent of their holdings, driving a token’s price down, your Orbet position will ensure that you have value to be reclaimed. If anyone decided to bet against the dump or rugpull, more value than what you put in initially could be reclaimed.
If the token is not dumped or no rugpull occurs by the bet’s Expiry Date, your small position will be lost, but with the silver lining that your main token’s position should be relatively unchanged, as the price should not be driven down.
Used in this way, an Orbet position acts as insurance against dumps & rugpulls.

What is next for the Orbet system?

There are a very large amount of updates to the interface already planned and in process, including a search feature for bets, a top/recent bets table, a liquidity vault that yields a small percent of all bet’s rewards to those who hold liquidity within the vault, statistics pages, graphs, etc.

Where can I go if I have questions or if Orbet is not working properly?

Questions and bugs can best be answered and handled by the developer at the OfficialOrbicular Telegram channel.

Happy betting,

The founder and developer of the Orbet and the Orbicular ecosystem. The One Man Army.