Abstract: Prediction markets are massive and successful industries, worth billions of US dollars. A blockchain alternative for prediction markets would stand to vastly increase their accuracy as well as improve efficiency, speed, flexibility, reduce costs and fees, and increase rewards for participants. So far, however, blockchain implementations are very lackluster, disappointing, or even dangerous. The most well-known of which, Augur, sees only a few dozen of users per day and was marred in its early release by “assassination contracts”. …

A formula I found for a very customizable system that distributes rewards. This formula can be updated in iterations:

Generalized Disinflationary Smart Reward Function (or GDSRF)

Variable meanings:

  • R(t) — Rewards with respect to time
  • t — Time
  • M — Max rewards
  • D — Distribution constant
  • R(t’) — Rewards at last reward formula change
  • t’ — Time at last reward formula change

The distribution constant is a constant that has a negative correlation with the distribution rate: the higher the constant, the slower reward distribution is, and vice versa. …

A flexible EVM Prediction Market.

What is OrbetV2?

OrbetV2 is a work-in-progress Prediction Market built on ethereum. It will allow ethereum users to create a Prediction against anything accessible within ethereum. Users can deposit and withdraw tokens into pre-made outcomes of a Prediction, determined by the Prediction’s creator. As users deposit more into a certain outcome, the cost of depositing into that outcome rises. As users withdraw more from a certain outcome, the cost of depositing into that outcome will fall. When a Prediction ends, rewards are primarily distributed to those who correctly predicted the outcome. A small portion of rewards are distributed…


OrbetV2 will allow much more than one “less-than” condition restricted to token balances. OrbetV2 will allow for bets to contain many (current limitation 256) different criteria for what satisfies the bet, as well as arbitrary logic and more flexible criteria. …


The founder and developer of the Orbet and the Orbicular ecosystem. The One Man Army.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store